(pensive music) - Okay, so we are literally now just days away from Election Day, although as we've been talking about, the election has already begun in Michigan because of early in-person voting, absentee ballots.

Nolan, I wanna start with you.

The Detroit News and WDIV had new polling out that continues to show this presidential race is incredibly close.

Is this the closest presidential race that we have seen in decades?

- In Michigan in the polling?

It is.

I mean, as it turned out, the Clinton-Trump race in 2016 ended up absolutely the closest race we've ever seen, but we didn't see that in the polling.

This time, we're seeing it in the polls.

I mean, they're both staying in that 47 to 49% range.

In one poll, one is up, and the other poll, the other is up.

And then the third poll, they're tied.

So this thing, I believe, is just as tight as we've ever seen or we've ever been aware of coming into Election Day.

And with this early voting, a lot of the people have already cast their ballots so they won't be changing their mind over the next few days.

And I think at this point, our poll showed 2% undecided.

So, it looks like most people have made up their minds.

And the challenge now is making sure they actually cast their ballots.

- Stephen, I heard someone recently say that if you are still undecided, that means you're likely not gonna vote.

That Detroit News poll showed 2% undecided.

What do you make of that?

- Well, I mean, I think there's no question, it's close, and closer than we've seen in past elections.

Although remember that in 2016, the weekend before the election, the poll showed a close, and in fact, the national pollsters and the analysts were saying it was too close to call.

- Right.

- Going into election morning.

I don't know what to make of it, right?

I do think the polls are undercounting some things that seem to be evident in places like Detroit.

Early voting in Michigan, which started over the weekend, also suggested a heavier Democratic trend than what you are seeing in some of these polls.

But, we gotta wait and see on Election Day what happens.

I do expect that there is an undercount in the polls of what's happening in Detroit.

That's just my gut and based on the people I hear from about the turnout.

But we thought that in 2016 as well and it didn't happen, so- - Right.

So, Nolan, let's go down the ballot a little bit to also another statewide race, that is the race for Senate, a open Senate seat.

This, too, is really close between former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers, current Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin.

What are we seeing in there?

- Well, we've seen a lot of money has been spent.

This may be the most expensive congressional race in the country.

It's certainly the most expensive race we've seen in Michigan.

It's tied; our poll had a three up for Slotkin.

I've seen other polls that have it tied in there.

I've seen a poll this week from InsiderAdvantage.

It had him up a point.

So it's another one where you're not going to be able, I think, to go into this with any confidence on who's gonna win.

It's just depends on who's got their... Who gets their votes out.

Now, the Rogers team has a very strong get out the vote effort, compared to what we've seen in recent years from Republicans.

I mean, they've really fallen down on the job in recent elections on turning out their voters.

And they've got a huge ground game going.

In fact, they've basically taken over the Trump ground game because that was struggling somewhat.

So, I think this one comes right down to the wire.

It's moving every day.

- Yeah, turnout.

These are all about turnout.

And yeah, what hurts Republicans, or potentially hurts Republicans, is the fact that the state party has struggled as much as it has.

I mean, it's got better leadership now, but it's still repairing itself.

It's still trying to pick itself up off the ground.

Does that mean enough on Election Day?

The truth is that Donald Trump has never had much of a turnout game in Michigan.

What he's counted on is Democrats not voting.

He won in 2016 'cause 20,000 Detroiters didn't show up.

I don't think that happens again this time.

I think that the motivation on the Democratic side, especially in Michigan, is much stronger, and especially in Detroit.

But again, we gotta wait and see.

It is about whether Harris and the Democrats can turn out the votes that are predictable.

Republicans haven't won a significant election in Michigan since 2016.

There's a reason for that.

Elections are predictable exercises; voter behavior is predictable.

There would have to be something different about this than the last three elections to turn it in a different way.

I haven't seen what that is and that's why I still think this is a state that ends up in the blue column.

- Well, that's something might be the Arab American vote when they are still- - Could be.

- On the fence of whether they're going to cast a ballot for Harris, whether they're gonna cast a ballot for Trump, or whether they're just not gonna vote for president at all.

And you could have a very significant fall off in Arab American vote, which has gone Democratic in the last two cycles, and that could be the difference that you're not seeing.

- Could be, could be.

- It could be, and also this strategy, I was talking to the chairman of the Michigan Republican Party just today, Pete Hoekstra, who is talking about this strategy of going after voters who don't actually tend to turn out and vote.

And I said, "Look, this seems to be a risky strategy," and I think it's one that they're aware that if they can get folks who don't normally vote to turn out, it's not rocket science, that will help them, but it doesn't mean that they will.

Stephen Henderson, Nolan Finley, we're gonna leave it there.

And next time we chat, it's gonna be after Election Day.

- We'll all sound like experts then, won't we?

- Then we'll really know.