>>> HELLO, EVERYONE.

WELCOME TO AMANPOUR & COMPANY.

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

ISRAEL STRIKES DAMASCUS IN SERIOUS ESCALATION IN SYRIA.

FORMER BRITISH SPY CHIEF EXPLAINS WHAT IS AT STAKE AND THE WIDER GLOBAL CONTEXT FOR >>> IS THE WORLD IN TRADE WERE YET?

TO FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS KNOW WHAT CONCESSIONS TRUMP WANTS FROM THEM?

MADE A CONFUSION OF TARIFFS AND DEADLINES, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER JASON FURMAN AND JILLIAN JOIN US.

LATER.

>> THE WAY YOU WIN ELECTIONS IS BY DOING WHAT YOU WERE SAYING YOU WERE GOING TO DO AND THAT IS WHAT WE SAY IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND.

>>> NATIONAL PROFILE GROWS.

MICHELLE MARTIN SPEAKS WITH MARLON GOVERNOR WESTMORE.

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>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

AGAIN INSIDE SYRIA AFTER ISRAEL LAUNCHED A POWERFUL SERIES OF AIRSTRIKES ON THE CAPITAL.

THE CLAIMS ARE PART OF A COMMITMENT TO DEFEND AND A MINORITY THAT HAS BEEN LOYAL TO ISRAEL.

SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO SAYS THAT THE U.S. IS VERY CONCERNED AND THEY ARE TRYING TO DE-ESCALATE THE SITUATION.

RUSSIA LAUNCHED MORE MASSIVE AIRSTRIKES ON UKRAINE, WHICH COMES DAYS AFTER THE WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCED NEW MILITARY AID, INCLUDING PATRIOT SENT VIA NATO.

PRESIDENT ZELENSKY'S HOME CITY WAS PARTICULARLY HARD HIT.

EVEN AS THE WHITE HOUSE WORKS WITH WESTERN ALLIES TO ARM UKRAINE, IT IS DISRUPTING TRADE RELATIONS STRATTON THREATENING TO OPPOSE A 30% TURF ON EUROPEAN GOOD STARTING ON AUGUST 1st.

TO ASSESS ALL OF THIS COMPLICATED GLOBAL LANDSCAPE, LET'S BRING IN WHO SERVED AS BRITAIN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N. AND CHIEF OF THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE.

JOHN, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

WHY IS ISRAEL BOMBING SYRIA AND DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE GIVEN THAT THE UNITED STATES AND PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS MET THE NEW LEADER AND MOVE THIS FORWARD IN A MORE PEACEFUL WAY.

>> I THINK THE ISRAELIS WERE MORE AMBIVALENT ABOUT THE OLD REGIME, THE ASSET REGIME.

THEY WERE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH THE WAY THAT THEY HAD A DEAL ABOUT HOW TO MANAGE THEIR MUTUAL BORDER.

ONE THE ASSET REGIME FELL, ISRAELIS WERE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT MIGHT FOLLOW.

THEIR RESPONSE HAS BEEN NOT TO SEE CONSOLIDATE SYRIA, BUT FRAGMENT SYRIA PRETTY >> THIS IS ISRAEL?

TO TRYING TO FRAGMENT?

THAT IS EVERYONE'S WORST NIGHTMARE.

>> I DON'T ACTUALLY BELIEVE THE ISRAELI LINE THAT THEY ARE INTERVENING IN SOUTHERN SYRIA IN ORDER TO SUPPORT AS IF THEY HAVE CONCERNS.

THE ARABS, MUSLIMS AND ARE PART OF THE NETWORK ETHNIC GROUPS AND RELIGIOUS GROUPS.

WHAT ISRAEL IS LOOKING FOR IS FRAGMENTED, WHICH IS WEAK AND DIVIDED AND A BIT LIKE LEBANON HAS BEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 40 YEARS.

I THINK AS A MISCALCULATION MYSELF, ONE OF THE GOOD THINGS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS DONE IN THE MIDDLE EAST WAS LIFT THE SANCTIONS OFFICE AREA.

THAT WAS AFTER HE MEANT THE INTERIM PRESIDENT OF SYRIA.

TO HAVE A SINGLE GOVERNMENT IN SYRIA.

NOW, HAS A BACKGROUND AND WE ALL KNOW THAT HE STARTED AS A TO HARDEST WITH THE CONNECTIONS TO AL QAEDA, BUT DOING AND SAYING THE RIGHT THING FOR THE LAST SIX OR EIGHT YEARS AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT.

I DON'T THINK ISRAELI ACTIONS WERE AT ALL HELPFUL.

>> YOU MENTIONED LEBANON.

TWO PRIME EXAMPLES FOR A LONG TIME AND MAY BE CATEGORIZED AND BROUGHT AL QAEDA TERRORISM TO THE WORLD, LEBANON, WHICH IS ON ISRAEL'S BORDER HAS HAS THE LAW THERE.

WHY WOULD THEY WANT TO RE- CREATE SOMETHING LIKE THAT?

>> THAT'S WHAT YOU HAVE TO PUT TO ISRAELIS.

I THINK THE ISRAELIS ARE CONCERNED THAT THEY MIGHT HAVE AN ISLAMIST GOVERNMENT ON THEIR BORDERS WHO MIGHT ALLOW FOR ATTACKS OVER HEIGHTS AND I DON'T THINK THERE IS ANY SIGN THAT IS INTERESTED IN THAT.

HE HAS EVEN TALKED ABOUT HIS COMMITMENTS TO HAVING A NORMAL AND FRIENDLY RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL AND SOME SPECULATION THAT HE MIGHT JOIN THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS.

NOW, ALL OF THAT IS SOMETHING THAT ISRAELIS SHOULD TRY TO WORK ON, BUT THEY HAVE IN THEIR MIND THAT THEY COULD SOMEHOW HAVE CONTROL SYRIA BY WORKING WITH THE KRISTEN GILLIBRAND INSIDE SYRIA.

I THINK THAT IS MISGUIDED AND WRONGHEADED, BUT THAT IS WHAT IS DRIVING THEIR CALCULATION OF DESTROYING SYRIA'S ARMED FORCES AND BACKING MILITIAS IN THE SOUTH.

>> THEY SAY THEY HIT A SYRIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE.

HERE'S THE THING.

SECRETARY RUBIO HAS BEEN QUITE PROMINENT.

THEY CAME OUT TODAY ABOUT THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS AND WORKING TO DE-ESCALATE IT AND THEY WILL DE-ESCALATE IT.

WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO?

THEY CAN DO A LOT OR CAN IT?

>> A LOT OF INFLUENCE OVER ISRAEL AND CAN CERTAINLY HOLD BACK THE ISRAELIS IF PRESIDENT TRUMP AND SECRETARY RUBIO DECIDED TO PUT SOME PRESSURE ON ISRAEL.

I THINK ISRAEL HAS OBVIOUSLY HAD A TERRIBLE EXPERIENCE IN OCTOBER 2023 AND FOUGHT BACK VERY EFFECTIVELY.

ONE OF THE RISKS WITH ISRAEL IS THAT THEY OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND AND HAVING GOT TO A STRONG POSITION AND DONE SERIOUS DAMAGE AND HAVING WEEKEND IRAN AND EXPOSED THE VULNERABILITIES AND THE BACK ASSET REGIME, THEY NOW NEED TO LOOK AT WHAT THE LONGER- TERM INTERESTS ARE AND LOOK AT A SYRIAN GOVERNMENT TO TAKE CONTROL, WHICH CAN TAKE CONTROL OF THE WHOLE OF THE COUNTRY AND NOT TO BREAK IT UP INTO ETHNIC FRAGMENTS.

>> A LOT OF ANALYSTS SAY THAT ISRAEL MAY BE GOOD AT MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE, BUT IT GENERALLY DOESN'T POLITICS TO AN END GAME AND DAY AFTER STRATEGY, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY BEING LEVELED REGARDING GAZA.

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN AND FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE, ESSENTIALLY THAT ISRAEL ACHIEVED WHAT IT COULD ACHIEVE AGAINST HAMAS AND THE LEGITIMATE DEGRADATION AFTER OCTOBER 7th.

THEY COULD HAVE GONE INTO A U.S.

BACKED AND REASONABLY BACKED PROPER CEASE-FIRE THAT WOULD BENEFIT ISRAEL, PALESTINIANS, REGION AND THEY JUST DIDN'T.

I DON'T KNOW IF YOU ARE AWARE, BUT VERY DEEPLY TIMES OF INVESTIGATION IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS EVENTUALLY SHOWED HOW NETANYAHU AT ONE POINT THOUGHT THAT HE COULD GET A CEASE-FIRE AT THE END OF THIS WAR WITH HAMAS SIX MONTHS IN, BUT PRESSURE BY COALITION AND BY HIS OWN SURVIVAL CHOSE HIS OWN SURVIVAL IN TERMS OF POLITICALLY AND CHOSE NOT TO GO TO JAIL IF HE WAS FOUND GUILTY UNDER THE CRIMINAL TRIAL.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?

WHAT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO HAPPEN IN THE INTERVENING YEAR?

>> FIRST OF ALL, PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU IS A SKILLFUL POLITICIAN AND HAS KEPT HIMSELF IN POWER ALMOST 30 YEARS NOW IN ISRAEL AND A LONG SPELL.

HE HAS A PERSONAL INTEREST AS LONG AS HE'S PRIME MINISTER AND HE'S NOT GOING TO BE HELD ACCOUNT TO THE ISRAELI COURTS FOR SOME OF THE ALLEGATIONS AND CHARGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE AGAINST HIM .

I THINK HE ALSO KNOWS THAT HIS LEGACY IS TARNISHED BY OCTOBER 7th AND HE WANTS TO ADDRESS THAT AND CORRECT THAT.

I THINK THERE'S A SENSE OF ISRAELI THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MILITARY SUCCESSES AND UNDOUBTED INTELLIGENCE SUCCESSES.

>> ACCEPT OCTOBER 7th.

>> THAT PENETRATION AND REACH AROUND THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN IRAN.

>> BENJAMIN NETANYAHU REFUSED TO ENTERTAIN THE INTELLIGENCE OF OUR CONCERNS THAT WERE BROUGHT TO HIM BY THE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AND OTHERS JUST BEFORE OCTOBER 7th.

>> IT WAS A FAILURE OF THE ENTIRE ISRAELI SYSTEM AND NETANYAHU HAS TO TAKE HIS SHIRT FOR WHAT WAS A CATASTROPHIC FAILURE OF THE ISRAELI SECURITY SYSTEM.

FOR THE BALANCE LIES IS THAT IT'S HARD TO GET IN THE HEAD OF A POLITICIAN AND WHAT FACTORS ARE IN THEIR MIND, BUT I DO THINK THAT THE END OF THE WAR IN GAZA BRINGS OBVIOUS POLITICAL PROBLEMS FOR NETANYAHU BECAUSE OF HIS CHOICE OF COALITION PARTNERS IN OTHERS ON THE FAR RIGHT.

THE END OF THE WAR PROBABLY WOULD LEAD TO EARLIER ELECTIONS AND YAHOO LIKE MANY OTHER POLITICIANS TO ENTERTAIN ELECTIONS UNTIL HE HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF WINNING THEM AND THE ELECTIONS DON'T HAVE TO TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER 15 MONTHS I BELIEVE IS THE CASE.

WE WILL SEE HOW IT GOES AND YOU CAN'T BLAME A POLITICIAN FOR ACTING POLITICALLY.

>> YOU CAN RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE COST AND THE COST IN LIVES IN GAZA.

EVERY DAY, YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HIM SHOOT TO KILL AND NEARLY 60,000 PEOPLE DEAD AND A LOT OF THEM ARE CHILDREN AND WOMEN.

JUST FOR THE PALESTINIANS ON A HUMANITARIAN LEVEL AND UNDER SIEGE IN TERMS OF HUMANITARIAN AID, BUT ALSO FOR ISRAEL'S REPUTATION AND THE REST OF THE REGION.

>> AS YOU KNOW, I SHARE MANY OF YOUR CONCERNS ON THIS.

I THINK THE ISRAELI OPERATIONS IN GAZA HAVE BEEN RELENTLESS AND QUESTIONABLE AND THE MAJORS THAT THEY HAVE USED SEEM TO HAVE LOST STRATEGIC PURPOSE IN THE WAY THAT THE HUMANITARIAN EFFORT HAS BEEN MILITARIZED IS A VERY BAD MOVE, INDEED.

THE RECKLESSNESS WITH WHICH PALESTINIANS HAVE BEEN KILLED IS INCOMPREHENSIBLE REALLY.

A LOT OF THINGS ARE GOING WRONG AND THE EFFORTS MADE BY THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION, EGYPTIANS AND OTHERS IN ORDER TO CREATE A NEW CEASE-FIRE DEAL BETWEEN HAMAS AND ISRAEL IS WELCOME AND LET'S SEE IF IT SUCCEEDS.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, THERE ARE 2 MILLION PALESTINIANS LIVING IN GAZA AND DON'T END UP GOING ANYWHERE.

THEY HAVE TO BE ALLOWED TO HAVE SOME SORT OF DECENT STANDARD OF LIFE IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE GOING TO BECOME A CLOSED ENCAMPMENT AND ENCLOSED PRISON FOR THESE PEOPLE.

>> IF I HAVE TIME, I WILL ASK YOU MORE ON THAT, BUT JUST ABOUT UKRAINE.

WE ARE IN EUROPE --.

>> BRITTON IS STILL PART OF YOUR.

>> DOES NOT THE EU, BUT IN ANY EVENT, I THINK YOU WOULD AGREE -- BUT, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS FANFARE AROUND WHAT IS BEING DESCRIBED AS A TRUMP U- TURN ON WEAPONS TO UKRAINE?

IF YOU LOOK AT IT, IT IS ACTUALLY WEAPONS THAT HAVE BEEN BROUGHT BY EUROPE FROM THE UNITED STATES TO GET TO UKRAINE.

YOUR VIEW ON THE MESSAGING AROUND IT AND THE EFFECT THAT IT WILL HAVE.

>> I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP IS GRADUALLY COMING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT MANY OF US HAVE FELT FOR THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS, WHICH IS THAT IS IMPORTANT AND MOSCOW HAS A VERY SINGLE AND SERIOUS AMBITION TO SUBJUGATE THE ENTIRETY OF UKRAINE.

HE IS NOT INTERESTED IN 20% OF THE TERRITORY AND IT'S NOT AN ISSUE OF TERRITORY, BUT WHETHER UKRAINE CAN BE ALLOWED TO BE AN INDEPENDENT STATE.

I THINK TRUMP INITIALLY CAME IN WITH SOME RESPECT AND ADMIRATION FOR PRESIDENT PUTIN WITH INFLUENCE AND THE BIG POWER SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION AND SO ON.

WE BEGIN TO REALIZE WHAT A LETHAL MANIACAL FIGURE THAT PRESIDENT PUTIN IS.

I THINK THE MOVE TO AGREE TO MY WEAPONS BEING SUPPLIED TO UKRAINE IS A WELCOME ONE.

WE HAVE KNOWN FOR SOME TIME THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS SUPPORTERS IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ARE VERY AVERSE TO PROVIDING MORE MONEY OR CONGRESSIONAL PROVISION FOR ARMS FOR UKRAINE.

EUROPEANS ARE PREPARED AND HAVE ALWAYS GIVEN MORE MONEY THAN UNITED STATES HAS TO UKRAINE, BUT THERE ARE CERTAIN CATEGORIES OF WEAPONS, WHICH ARE BEYOND EUROPE'S CAPACITY TO PRODUCE, WHICH INCLUDES THE AIR DEFENSE MISSILES AND SOME OF THE LONGEST RANGE ATTACK MISSILES THAT CAN BE USED IN RUSSIA.

THE FACT THAT EUROPEANS ARE PAYING FOR THIS OBVIOUSLY IS NOT IDEAL.

WHY SHOULD AMERICANS BE PAYING IF THEY ARE GIVING TO UKRAINE?

NONETHELESS, THE BETTER THAT MILITARY SUPPORT HAS BEEN GIVEN.

IT'S AN IMPORTANT STEP IN TERMS OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S UNDERSTANDING AND THE REALITY AND IN TERMS OF SUPPORT UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT.

>> IT IS INCREDIBLY LATE, BECAUSE WE HAVE SIX MONTHS IN HIS ADMINISTRATION WERE NO WEAPONS ARE GOING IN TERMS OF PUTTING A STOP ON THEM.

SOME ARE TRAILING FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, BUT THEN THERE WAS A PAUSE AND WE HAD SEVEN MONTHS IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN WHEN HE STOPPED THE REPUBLICANS FROM AGREEING TO SEND WEAPONS.

FOR SOME 13 MONTHS, UKRAINE IS ESSENTIALLY FIGHTING WITH HIS ARMS BEHIND HIS BACK AND RUSSIA, AS WE HAVE SEEN, YOU JUST HAVE TO LOOK AT THE TV AND YOU JUST HAVE TO LOOK TO KNOW.

IT HAS UP TO MASSIVELY AND STILL THINKS HE COULD WIN.

YOU ARE THE FORMER INTELLIGENCE CHIEF.

WHAT DO YOU THINK YOU ARE GOING TO SEE IN THE NEXT MONTHS OR SO?

>> UNDERESTIMATED UKRAINIAN DISSOLVE AND DETERMINATION AND INNOVATION, AS WELL.

THREE YEARS AGO, NO DRONES WERE BEING PRODUCED IN UKRAINE.

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4 MILLION DRONES HAVE BEEN MANUFACTURED AND DEPLOYED BY THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES.

THAT IS A MASSIVE UPLIFT OF THEIR OWN DEFENSE INDUSTRY.

THERE IS A REAL DETERMINATION ON THE PART OF UKRAINIANS TO STAND UP TO RUSSIA.

THIS IS NOT LED TO THE COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN NATIONALISTS AND CONTRARY HAS REINFORCED IT AND IS A DEFINING MOMENT IN UKRAINIANS NATIONAL STORY, WHICH WILL LAST FOR GENERATIONS TO COME.

IN A WAR OF ATTRITION, THE BIGGER AND MORE POPULOUS WEALTHY POWER IS PREVAIL, WHICH IS WHY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, NATO COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN SO STRONG IN THEIR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, BECAUSE OF RUSSIA DOES SUCCEED IN UKRAINE, WHO IS GOING TO BE NEXT?

WHERE ARE PUTIN'S AMBITIONS GOING TO TAKE HIM TO NEXT?

HE REALLY WANTS TO RETURN THE SITUATION IN EUROPE BACK TO WHAT IT WAS BEFORE 1989 BEFORE THE COLLAPSE OF THE WALL WHERE IT RELEASED IN EUROPE AND IS BASICALLY UNDER MISSION TUTELAGE.

THESE ARE NATO COUNTRIES NOW, BUT IF HE CAN UNDERMINE THE RESULT, THEN HE WILL DO SO ONCE HE'S FINISHED IN UKRAINE, SO IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT WE STAND UP FOR UKRAINE AND IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT THAT TRUMP UNDERSTANDS THE SCALE AND STAKES INVOLVED HERE.

IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE CRIME, BUT IT'S MORE THAN JUST THE 20% OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY THAT RUSSIA OCCUPIES AT THE MOMENT.

I THINK ONE THING WE HAVE SEEN IN UKRAINE IS THAT DEFENSE IS EASIER THAN OFFENSE.

WHETHER UKRAINIANS TRY TO MOVE FORWARD IN THE SUMMER OF 2023, THEY MADE PRECIOUS PROGRESS AND LOST A LOT OF PEOPLE AND THE RUSSIANS ARE TRYING TO DRIVE FORWARD IN THE EAST OF THE COUNTRY AND THEY ARE LOSING THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE EVERY WEEK.

NOT EVEN RUSSIA CAN WITHSTAND THAT FOR LONG.

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING OVER THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS BETTER THAN THE MANY WESTERN EXPERTS HAD EXPECTED, BUT THE SIGNS OF STRAIN ARE BEGINNING TO COME THROUGH.

THAT'S NOT GOING TO SLOW DOWN PUTIN, BUT IT MIGHT MAKE OTHERS THINK THAT THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE WE'VE GOT TO FIND A WAY OUT AT SOME POINT.

THERE ARE NO EARLY SIGNS OF THAT, BUT I THINK THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION, SECRETARY RUBIO HAS ALWAYS HAD A VERY CLEAR VIEW OF WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE AND IF THE ADMINISTRATION AS A WHOLE UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S LEADERSHIP COMES TO UNDERSTAND THAT THERE IS NO EARLY CEASE-FIRE DEAL THAT IS SUSTAINABLE TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

>> ESSENTIAL.

YUP.

INDEED.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH, INDEED.

>>> NOW, THE DRUMBEAT OF TURF HEADLINES CONTINUES OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE WITH A NEW TRADE DEAL OF INDONESIA WILL SLAP A 19% LEVY ON ALL GOODS FROM THAT COUNTRY.

35% TARIFF THREAD ON CANADIAN GOODS COMES ON THE HEELS OF AN EARLIER ANNOUNCEMENT OF 30% ON BOTH MEXICO AND EUROPEAN UNION.

CRITICAL INDUSTRIES ARE ALSO TARGETED, LIKE PHARMACEUTICALS AND SEMICONDUCTORS.

FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS, THE IMPACT IS STARTING TO BITE.

HE WAS INFLATION HEATED BACK UP IN JUNE RISING TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS.

ALL OF THIS AS TRUMP CONTINUES TO ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL.

TO MAKE SENSE OF IT, LET'S TRY TO MAKE SENSE OF IT WITH JASON FURMAN WHO SERVED AS CHAIR UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA AND JILLIAN, FOR THE FINANCIAL TIMES AND PROVOST: CAMBRIDGE.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, BOTH OF YOU.

LET ME START WITH YOU AND THE UNITED STATES, JASON.

ARE WE YET IN A FULL-SCALE TRADE WAR?

WHAT DO YOU THINK, JASON FIRST.

>> IT'S A UNILATERAL WAR FOR THE MOST PART, BUT THE UNITED STATES HAS THE HIGHEST TARIFFS THEY HAVE HAD IN AT LEAST 80 YEARS AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER THAN THAT.

YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE 19th CENTURY IF WE DO ALL TARIFFS THAT WE PROMISED.

WHAT HASN'T HAPPENED ON A LARGE- SCALE SOAP ARE IS RETALIATION BY OTHER COUNTRIES, WHETHER THEY ARE KEEPING THEIR POWDER DRY AND WAITING FOR SOMEONE ELSE.

THAT IS WHEN IT WILL BE A FULL- SCALE.

>> YOU ARE IN OTHER COUNTRIES AND I WONDER HOW YOU ANALYZE WHEN IT COULD BE OR WHAT WILL CONSTITUTE A FULL STAGE WAR IN TERMS OF TRADE.

I JUST WANT TO QUOTE FOR YOU WHO IS A PROFESSIONAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS SAID THAT TO YOUR PAPER, THE FT, UNLIKE THE 1930s WHEN CUSTOMERS HAD MORE BALANCED TRADING RELATIONSHIPS, TODAY'S WORLD FEATURES A HELP SYSTEM WITH THE U.S. AT THE CENTER.

THAT MAKES RETALIATION ECONOMICALLY LESS DESIRABLE FOR MOST COUNTRIES EVEN WHEN IT MIGHT BE POLITICALLY SATISFYING.

IS THAT WHAT IS GOING ON YOU THINK, JILLIAN?

>> I THINK YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

IT IS A SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR AROUND FINANCIAL LINKS, BECAUSE THE DOLLAR IS AT THE CENTER, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS, WHAT IS IT YOU ARE GOING TO DO?

IF THEY RETALIATE OF THE FIRST AUGUST, THEN WE REALLY ARE IN A SERIOUS TRADE WAR AND TRANSATLANTIC TRADE IS SO IMPORTANT FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY THAT IS GOING TO BE VERY NASTY.

RIGHT NOW, THE EU IS TRYING TO PLAY A LONG GAME AND ARE BUYING INTO THE TO TRADE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS UNTIL RECENTLY AND I THINK THE REAL QUESTION IS, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO AND WILL TRUMP CRACK?

>> OTHER COUNTRIES, AS WELL, BECAUSE THEY DESCRIBE IT AS TIMID AND NOT DARING TO RESPOND TO TRUMP AND HIS TARIFFS, BUT OTHERS HAVE CALLED IT ECONOMIC RATIONALITY, GIVEN THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE U.S. CONSUMER MARKET AND WILLING TO ESCALATE.

DO YOU THINK OTHER COUNTRIES IS A BLOCK, LIKE OTHER COUNTRIES PLAYING A SMART CANE?

WHAT YOU THINK AND WHAT LEVEL DO YOU THINK WILL FORCE THEM TO RETALIATE?

>> THE DIFFICULTY ANY COUNTRY INCLUDING THE EU IS THAT IF THEY RETALIATED, IT HURTS THAT YOU AS MUCH AS IT HURTS THE UNITED STATES.

MODELING OF CANADIAN RETALIATION SHOWED THAT IT ACTUALLY -- THE RETALIATION COUNT WAS GOING TO DO HURT CANADA EVEN MORE THAN IT HURT THE U.S. NOW, YOU STILL MIGHT WANT AND NEED TO DO THAT TO GET THE U.S. TO CHANGE ITS BEHAVIOR , BUT YOU ARE INCURRING A BIG SACRIFICE ON TOP OF THE PAGE YOU ALREADY GOT FROM AMERICAN TARIFFS, WHICH IS ONLY WORTH DOING IF YOU THINK IT WILL CHANGE TRUMP'S MIND.

ONE COUNTRY THAT HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN DOING THAT AND GETTING IT TO CHANGE TRUMP'S MIND IS CHINA.

THEY HAVE SPOKE ON TRADE, BUT THE HUB IS MORE TRYING TO CHINA THAN THE UNITED STATES AND MORE LEVERAGE THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD ON THESE ISSUES.

>> THAT'S INTERESTING AND I SEE WANT TO GET IN, JILLIAN.

A LOT IS DIRECTED AT CHINA.

TRUMP IS TRYING TO REALLY PUT THE BRAKES ON CHINA AND OTHER COUNTRIES THAT MIGHT WORK WITH CHINA, SO TO SPEAK.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I HAVE TWO POINTS TO MAKE.

FIRST, THE WHITE HOUSE IS CONCERNED AND THEY THINK THE STRATEGY IS WORKING.

GETTING THE TERMS TO ABOUT 50 BILLION, WHICH IS A LOT MORE THAN THEY EVER HAD FOR A NUMBER OF DECADES MOST COUNTRIES THUS FAR HAVE NOT RETALIATED.

THEIR BULLYING THE WORLD INTO SWALLOWING SOME TARIFFS WITHOUT ACTUALLY IMPOSING TARIFFS OF THEIR OWN.

CHINA IS ONE COUNTRY, WHICH HAS STOOD UP EFFECTIVELY TO AMERICA AND ESSENTIALLY FORCED TRUMP TO BACK DOWN.

WELL, IT IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THEIR CONTROL OF MINERALS AND PARTICULARLY THE EXPORT OF MAGNETS AND CRUCIAL FOR SO MANY AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES.

THERE IS A BIGGER STORY.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE GLOBAL SYSTEM TODAY, CHINA BASICALLY HAS HEGEMONIC POWER BECAUSE IT CONTROLS KEY SUPPLY-CHAIN NODES IN INDUSTRY.

AMERICA HAS FINANCIAL HEGEMONIC POWER, I.E.

FINANCIAL DOMINANCE BECAUSE OF THE DOLLAR.

AMERICA IS TRYING TO DO IS UNDERMINE CHINA'S DOMINANCE OF MANUFACTURING AND PROTECT THE DOLLAR DOMINANCE.

OF COURSE, TRYING TO DO THE REVERSE.

THAT IS REALLY WHY CHINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO STAND UP TO AMERICA IN THE WAY THAT MOST COUNTRIES HAVE NOT THUS FAR.

>> JUST LAID OUT BASICALLY THE INCOME THAT THE U.S. HAS TAKEN ALREADY FROM THESE TARIFFS AND NOT EVEN AT FULL-SCALE TARIFFS.

THEY ARE SITTING PRETTY AND THINKING THAT THIS IS WORKING.

YOU AND APRIL WARNED OF THE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS AND TALKING ABOUT ENORMOUS SHOTS.

YOU THINK THEY COULD COME DOWN THE LINE?

WHAT YOU THINK IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW?

A SHORT-TERM REACTION AND SOMETHING MIGHT MAKE IT WORSE FOR THE AMERICAN CONSUMER AND THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND GLOBAL ECONOMY.

>> WE ARE ALREADY SUFFERING.

IT IS NOT DRAMATIC AND APOCALYPTIC, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, THE GROWTH RATE WILL BE SOMETHING LIKE 1.2%.

LAST YEAR, 2.7%, SO THE GROWTH RATE IS DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT.

OUR INFLATION RATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR INCLUDING EXCLUDING THE VOLATILE FOOD AND ENERGY.

INSTEAD, IT IS NOW HEADED AWAY FROM THE 2% TARGET.

I EXPECT INFLATION WILL GET WORSE AND GO ABOVE 3% BEFORE IT GETS BETTER.

IS NOT THE DRAMATIC PYROTECHNICS, BUT IT IS A MEANINGFUL AND NOTICEABLE WORSENING OF JUST ABOUT EVERY ASPECT OF WHAT YOU CARE ABOUT IN THE ECONOMY.

>> LET ME ASK YOU.

MORE SHAKINESS AROUND THE FUTURE OF THE CHAIR JEROME POWELL AND THAT PRESIDENT CONSULTED WITH CONGRESS OR HIS ALLIES, ANYWAY.

THE TEAM MIGHT WRITE ABOUT FIRING JEROME POWELL AND IN WHITE HOUSE OVAL OFFICE PHOTO OP TODAY HE SAID, I HAVE NO PLANS TO OR WHATEVER.

WHAT EFFECT DOES THAT HAVE IF HE SHOULD FIRE JEROME POWELL?

>> IT'S BAD.

>> SORRY.

SORRY.

I WILL LET JILLIAN GO FIRST, THEN YOU PRETTY BOTH SAID BAD.

GO ON, JILLIAN.

>> WHAT I THINK WE BOTH THOROUGHLY AGREE ON IS THAT IT WOULD BE VERY BAD.

IT WILL BE BAD FOR TWO REASONS.

FIRST, TREASURY SECRETARY HAD TO SELL $9 TRILLION WORTH OF TREASURIES OVER THE NEXT YEAR.

THINK ABOUT THAT.

$9 TRILLION WORTH.

THAT IS A BIGGER SUM THAN MOST ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD.

HE IS SELLING THOSE BONDS INTO REALLY BAD CONDITIONS, WHICH IS THAT INFLATION IS RISING AND PEOPLE EXPECT IT TO GO HIGHER.

YOU HAVE THE DEBT EXPLODING YOU HAVE THE DOLLARS THAT ARE ALREADY WEAKENED QUITE A BIT.

IF PEOPLE STOP HAVING FAITH, THEY WILL WORRY MORE ABOUT INFLATION.

FOR THE TREASURY TO SEE DOUBTS TEST ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE RIGHT NOW IS REALLY BAD NEWS TRYING TO SELL TREASURY BONDS.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THAT WHAT'S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW WITH TARIFFS AND ALL OF THIS CHATTER AROUND THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS CREATING A CANCER OF UNCERTAINTY.

IT'S NOT A HEART ATTACK, AS JASON SAID.

WE ARE NOT SEEING THE ECONOMY STOP BECAUSE OF THE TURKS, BUT WHAT YOU ARE SEEING IS CANCER OF CREEPING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER INVESTORS CAN AND TRUST WHAT'S HAPPENING IN TERMS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, WHETHER THE BUSINESSES CAN TRUST SO THEY KNOW THE OUTLOOK IS THE TARIFFS.

THAT IS A VERY SUBTLE PROBLEM THAT WILL HANG ON THE U.S. ECONOMY FOR A LONG TIME.

>> JASON, I WANT YOUR TAKE.

HE SAID BAD, AS WELL.

CAN THE PRESIDENT FIRE THE CHAIRMAN?

HOW DOES THAT LOOK?

THAT WAS AN INDEPENDENT BODY.

>> HE CAN FIRE HIM WITHOUT CAUSE.

THE SUPREME COURT RECENTLY REAFFIRMED THAT, BUT THEY WOULD ARGUE THAT THEY WERE A SET OF CAUSES.

THOSE CAUSES ARE COMPLETE PRETEXT, LIKE THE COST OF A BUILDING RENOVATION HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE REAL REASON OF BEING FIRED.

MY HOPE AS A SUPREME COURT WOULD REINSTATE HIM, BUT ABSOLUTELY BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IT.

I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING JILLIAN SAID AND PERHAPS AM ABOUT TO MAKE A MISTAKE HERE.

I THINK DONALD TRUMP IS RATIONAL ENOUGH THAT HE'S NOT GOING TO ACTUALLY DO THIS, BECAUSE YELLING AT POWELL 1%, THAT IS BAD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUT IT'S GOOD FOR SOMETHING ELSE IS TRYING TO DO, WHICH IS LAY THE PREDICATE THAT IF ANYTHING GOES WRONG IN THE ECONOMY, HE CAN BLAME JEROME POWELL AND SAY THAT IT WAS DONALD TRUMP'S FAULT.

NOT ONLY DO BAD THINGS HAPPEN IN THE ECONOMY, BUT HE OWNS THE BAD THINGS TO A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.

IN SOME WAYS, THE BEST THING POLITICALLY IS TO HAVE PAOLO THERE AND BE ABLE TO BLAME HIM.

THAT IS WHY HE WILL STAY THERE THROUGH THE END OF HIS TERM IN MAY OF NEXT YEAR, BUT WITH DONALD TRUMP WHO KNOWS.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE IDEA.

TALKED ABOUT THE ECONOMIC, TRADE AND ALL OF WHAT DONALD TRUMP BELIEVES ABOUT THIS TOPIC.

WHEN IT COMES TO BRAZIL FOR INSTANCE, HE IS STARTING A 50% TARIFF.

ALSO, AND HOW HE THINKS THE CURRENT BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT AND JUDICIAL PROCESS IS CLOTHED, FED TO HIS PAL AND FORMER PRESIDENT THAT HE'S ON A WITCH HUNT.

WHERE DID THIS AND DO?

WHEN YOU WATCH FROM AFAR, DO YOU SEE -- WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT?

THAT IS IDEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL AND NOT NECESSARILY ABOUT TRADE.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

TO MY MIND, THIS IS THE EPITOME OF WHAT PEOPLE ARE CALLING GEOECONOMICS, WHICH IS REALLY ABOUT THE IDEA THAT ECONOMICS IS NO LONGER KING AND AS IT WAS THE LAST 50 YEARS WERE PEOPLE CALL THEM ECONOMIC DROVE POLITICS AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND.

INSTEAD, POLITICS DRIVING ECONOMICS AND ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT THINGS, LIKE TRADE, FINANCE AND MILITARY ISSUES BEING JUMBLED TOGETHER AND WE ARE SEEING THAT VERY CLEARLY AND DEALING WITH F BRAZIL.

>> LET ME PLAY THIS BEFORE YOU JUMP IN, JASON BRAD TRUMP SPOKE TO CNN'S CAITLIN COLLINS ABOUT THIS AND HERE'S WHAT HE SAID.

>> HOW DO YOU JUSTIFY PUTTING TARIFFS ON BRAZIL WITH THE SURPLUS IN THE UNITED STATES?

>> BECAUSE I'M ABLE TO DO IT.

NOBODY ELSE WOULD BE ABLE TO DO IT.

>> THAT'S PRETTY STUNNING.

SHE POINTED OUT CORRECTLY THAT THE U.S. HAS A MASSIVE TRADE SURPLUS WITH BRAZIL AND HE'S LIKE, ONLY I CAN DO IT.

>> YEAH, THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE LIKE, WHAT IS THE ONE REASON THAT DONALD TRUMP LOVES TARIFFS?

THERE IS NOT AN ANSWER, BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ONE REASON.

HE LIKES THEM, BECAUSE HE THINKS THE WORLD IS ZERO-SUM AND THAT OTHER COUNTRIES PAY FOR THEM.

HE LIKES THEM, BECAUSE HE THINKS THEY ARE A WAY TO ACHIEVE HIS GEOPOLITICAL GOALS.

HE THINKS THEY WILL LOWER TRADE DEFICITS.

MOST OF THOSE ARE MISTAKES AND WRONG UNDERSTANDING OF THE WORLD.

FUNDAMENTALLY, HE LIKES TARIFFS AND HE JUST REALLY LIKES THEM.

HE CAN BARELY LET A DAY GO BY WITHOUT WANTING TO MAKE NEWS AND TALKING ABOUT A NEW TARIFF.

>> IN OUR LAST QUESTION, THE OVERARCHING REASON TO PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS TEAM IS TO BRING BACK MANUFACTURING AND THE SORT OF OLD LADY THAT IT WAS DONE IN THE UNITED STATES.

THE ECONOMIST RECENTLY TOLD THE UNITED STATES THAT -- THE NEW YORK TIMES THAT SHE THINKS TARIFFS ARE BAD AND SHE DOESN'T AGREE THAT THE REST OF THE WORLD IS RIPPING OFF THE UNITED STATES, BUT SHE ALSO THINKS THAT THERE IS SOME LOGIC.

SOME INDUSTRIES COULD BE TEMPTED BACK TO THE UNITED STATES AND I THINK SHE TALKED ABOUT ALL THE REST OF IT.

WHAT DO YOU THINK COULD BE AGAIN IN THE U.S.?

>> HERE IS THE ISSUE THAT EVERYONE SHOULD ASK THEMSELVES.

IS DONALD TRUMP USING TARIFFS AS A STRATEGY TO RE- INDUSTRIALIZE AMERICA OR JUST AS A TACTIC TO TRY TO CREATE LEVERAGE TO FORCE OTHER THINGS TO HAPPEN.

THE ANSWER IS THAT HE'S USING IT FOR BOTH.

IT'S A STRATEGY TO INDUSTRIALIZE AMERICA AND YOU CAN SAY THAT ACTUALLY AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY MIGHT MAKE SENSE.

IF YOU BELIEVE AMERICA HAS BEEN HOLLOWED OUT.

TARIFFS ARE JUST ONE COMPONENT OF THE BIGGER INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND THE OTHER ELEMENTS YOU NEED ARE WORKFORCE TRAINING, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, LOANS TO BUSINESSES THAT YOU WANT TO ENCOURAGE.

RIGHT NOW, WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE OTHER ELEMENTS OF A SERIOUS INDUSTRIAL POLICY, WHICH IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN MY MIND.

>> JASON, TO YOU, DO YOU SEE -- WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO THAT PART OF THE TRUMP GOAL TO BRING BACK THOSE INDUSTRIAL THINGS?

>> I VERY MUCH AGREE WITH JILLIAN.

WHAT SAY WE WANT A DRONE INDUSTRY, BECAUSE WE THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO THE FUTURE OF WAR?

DOING SOME COMBINATION OF TARIFFS ON DRONES, SUBSIDIES FOR DRONE FACTORIES AND PAYING FOR RESEARCH ON DRONES WOULD MAKE A LOT OF SENSE.

RIGHT NOW, WE SEE TARIFFS ON THINGS LIKE BANANAS AND COFFEE THAT HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY.

WE SEE TARIFFS ON THINGS LIKE COPPER, WHICH WE WILL HAVE A REAL HARD TIME MAKING IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT A LOT OF INDUSTRIES REALLY NEEDED.

WHEN THE COST OF COPPER GOES UP, IT ACTUALLY HURTS AMERICA CAN INDUSTRIES.

ON TWO AND THREE OF THAT STOOL, INVESTING ON PARTICULAR INDUSTRIES AND DOING RESEARCH THAT UNDERLIES THEM WERE MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, SO THIS IS NOT DONE AN EFFECTIVE STRATEGY.

>> WE WILL SEE HOW THE AMERICAN CONSUMER RESPONSE IF AT ALL DOES GO IN THE DIRECTION OF JASON AND JILLIAN, THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED.

>>> TOUGHEN UP.

THOSE OTHER STERN WORDS TO HIS FELLOW DEMOCRATS IN THE WAKE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DOMESTIC POLICY AS THEY SEARCH FOR THEIR WAY FORWARD AND OBAMA IMPLORED HIS PARTY TO STAND UP FOR THE THINGS THAT YOU KNOW AND THINK ARE RIGHT.

THE GOVERNOR IS COMMITTED TO DOING JUST THAT IN HIS STATE AND HE SPEAKS TO MARTIN ABOUT HOW HE'S GOING TO BE DOING IT.

>> THANKS.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TALKING WITH US.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH.

GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

>> WE WANT TO TALK TO YOU.

YOU ARE HIGHLY VISIBLE, BUT YOU ARE ALSO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE NATION'S CAPITAL.

YOU ARE EXPERIENCING WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE CALLING THE TRIPLE WHAMMY.

WHY DON'T WE START WITH THE WHOLE ECONOMIC PICTURE?

BY THE STATE'S OWN NUMBERS, THEY LOST 3500 FEDERAL POSITIONS EARLIER THIS YEAR, WHICH IS A BIG NUMBER IN A STATE WHERE NEARLY 7% OF THE WORKING POPULATION IS OR WAS FEDERALLY EMPLOYED, SO HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT THIS MOMENT?

HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT NAVIGATING THIS?

>> THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT'S A CHALLENGING MOMENT, BECAUSE THEY HAVE A GREATER LEVEL OF EXPOSURE TO FEDERAL CUTS THAN ANY OTHER STATE IN THE COUNTRY.

I HAVE OVER 260,000 FEDERAL JOBS AND FEDERAL EMPLOYEES IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND OVER 160,000 FEDERAL JOBS, SO WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THINGS LIKE PETS TO THE NIH AND SOCIAL SECURITY, THESE ARE JUST REAL INSTITUTIONS THAT SERVE PEOPLE WITHIN OUR COUNTRY, BUT THEY ARE OFTENTIMES MARYLANDERS ARE NOW LOSING THEIR JOBS.

WE JUST HAVE TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE AND THOUGHTFUL ABOUT WAYS TO SUPPORT FEDERAL WORKERS AND WE WERE THE FIRST IN OUR COUNTRY TO ANNOUNCE A PLOT CALLED THE FEDS TO ADS, WHICH MEANS IF A PERSON IS A LAID-OFF FEDERAL WORKER AND HAVE AN INTEREST AND SKILL SET TO BECOME AN EDUCATOR OR TEACHER IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND, THEN WE ARE GOING TO STREAMLINE THAT PROCESS, CUT THE RED TAPE GET THEM INSIDE OF CLASSROOMS AND YOU ONLY SEE IN THE FIRST MONTHS THAT IT IS GOING TO CUT ABOUT 10% OF OUR TEACHER SHORTAGE THAT EXISTED IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND THAT WE HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERS TO BE IDLE ABLE TO IDENTIFY HOW THEY CAN UTILIZE AND ACTUALLY THE BUILDER NEEDS, AS WELL.

VERY PROUD OF THE RESULTS WERE MARYLAND IS ONE OF THE FASTEST JOB GROWTH RATES IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY THAT OUR EMPLOYMENT RATE RIGHT NOW IS 3.2%, WHICH IS MORE THAN A FULL POINT LOWER THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE.

I'M PROUD THAT MARYLAND HAS HELPED ME THIS MOMENT DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND STATES HAS REALLY BEEN SEVERING.

>> IS A VERY DIVERSE STATE AND ALSO HAS RURAL AREAS.

THESE MEDICAID CUTS THAT ARE PART OF THE PRESIDENT'S TAX AND SPEND BILL, THE REPUBLICANS DON'T CALL IT CUTS, BUT EVERYBODY CALLS THEM CUT, BECAUSE WORK REQUIREMENTS AND WORKING ASSUMPTION IS THAT THE WORK REQUIREMENTS WILL CALL CAUSE PEOPLE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE ROLLS AND REIMBURSEMENT RATES.

IT'S A TECHNICAL ISSUE.

HOSPITALS IN THE RURAL AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT.

IS THAT A CONCERN OF YOURS?

>> THIS IS A DEVASTATING HIT.

YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

WITH THE NUMBER ONE INDUSTRY IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND IS AGRICULTURE.

RURAL SUPPORT AND RURAL HOSPITALS ARE CRUCIAL TO OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADVANCEMENT IN ADDITION TO OUR HEALTHCARE.

I WAS RECENTLY ON THE SHORE SPEAKING TO FOLKS, BECAUSE WE FINISHED MAKING HISTORIC INVESTMENT IN RURAL HOSPITALS BOTH IN EASTERN SHORE AND WESTERN MARYLAND.

DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE ON THE STATE LEVEL AND MY ADMINISTRATION MADE INVESTMENTS IN HEALTHCARE AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS NOW PROPOSING CUTTING ABOUT A QUARTER BILLION DOLLARS FROM MARYLAND'S RURAL HOSPITALS.

THIS IS NOT EVEN AN INCONVENIENCE.

THIS IS AN EXISTENTIAL QUESTION THAT YOU HAVE FROM MANY OF OUR HOSPITALS.

DOES THE PERSON HAVE THE ABILITY TO GET NOT JUST SPECIALIZED CARE, BUT BASIC PRIMARY CARE TO GET THAT WITHOUT HAVING TO TRAVEL AN HOUR AND A HALF TO GET IT, SO THERE IS A DEEP LEVEL UNFAIRNESS THAT EXISTS IN THE WAY THE BILL WAS STRUCTURED AND IT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

>> IS THERE ANYTHING YOU CAN DO?

SOME STATES ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A RURAL HEALTH FUND AND THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF THAT IN BILL THAT DOES OFFER SOME SUPPORT FOR RURAL HOSPITALS, BUT IT SOUNDS LIKE A BIG NUMBER AND IT IS NOWHERE NEAR THE AMOUNT THAT WOULD ACTUALLY BE CUT, BUT IT'S ABOUT A THIRD OF THAT.

AGAIN, THAT'S ARITHMETIC MY CALCULUS.

IS THERE ANY WAY TO MAKE OF THAT DIFFERENCE?

>> YOU SAID IT BEST.

IT'S ARITHMETIC.

WHAT WAS BEING PROPOSED IS ALMOST OFFENSIVE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT IN COMPARISON TO THE CUTS THAT ARE GOING TO HAPPEN TO HEALTHCARE AND THE TRUTH IS THAT THERE IS NOT A SINGLE STATES INCLUDE MARYLAND THAT HAS THE RESOURCES TO MAKE UP FOR WHEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT JUST DECIDES TO CUT THEMSELVES OUT OF A PROCESS.

WHEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT LOOKS AT OUR STATES AND SAYS, YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN AND LOOKS AT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND SAYS YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN.

THIS IS DAMAGING AND WE ARE GETTING CREATIVE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOUGHTFUL AND AS WE SAY, WE LEAVE NO ONE BEHIND.

THERE IS NO STATE TO HAVE A BALANCE SHEET TO SIMPLY MAKE UP OR WHEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DECIDES.

>> THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF PAIN POINTS FOR MARYLAND SPECIFICALLY.

ONE IS THAT THE FBI HEADQUARTERS WAS SCHEDULED TO MOVE TO MARYLAND.

IT'S A LONG-TERM PROJECT, BECAUSE IT'S A HUGE FACILITY AND THEY DECIDED THAT THEY WANTED THE HEADQUARTERS TO REMAIN IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.

THE FOOTBALL TEAM IS SUPPOSED TO BE LEAVING MARYLAND FOR WASHINGTON, D.C., AS WELL.

ONE OF YOUR AMUSEMENT PARKS IS CLOSING.

THESE ARE NOT THINGS YOU COULD NOT HAVE ANTICIPATED WHEN YOU RAN FOR GOVERNOR.

NOT TO MENTION, THE KEY BRIDGE.

ONE OF YOUR MAJOR TRANSPORTATION HUBS, THE KEY BRIDGE IN THIS FREAK ACCIDENT THAT CAUSED DEATH AND SIGNIFICANT IMPEDIMENTS.

ON THE PLUS SIDE, YOU, WITH THE HELP OF FEDERAL PARTNERS WERE ABLE TO HELP GET THE BRIDGE UP AND RUNNING IN FAR LESS TIME THAN PEOPLE HAD ANTICIPATED, WHICH HAS TO BE A POINT OF PRIDE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THESE ARE REAL ECONOMIC FLOWS.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES, HOW DO YOU NAVIGATE ALL OF THAT AT THE SAME TIME?

>> ONE THING THAT THE PEOPLE IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND WHEN THEY ELECTED ME AS GOVERNOR IS THEY KNEW THAT THEY WERE ELECTING A SOLDIER.

MY BACKGROUND IS NOT IN POLITICS, BUT ACTUALLY IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND ALSO AND THAT SOLDIERS IN AFGHANISTAN.

THE THING THAT I ALWAYS LEARNED WAS THAT THE ONLY THING THAT IS PREDICTABLE IS TO EXPECT THE UNPREDICTABLE.

THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE.

YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

WE CAME REALIZING AND LETTING OUR FIRST DAYS AND NOT JUST REALIZING THE STRUCTURAL DEFICIT THAT WE INHERITED, BUT LOOKING AT THE OTHER FISCAL REALITIES THAT WERE COMING ON BOARD TO INCLUDE THINGS TO YOUR POINT THAT THE FBI BUILDING, WHICH MARYLAND WORKED FOR A DECADE AND ABLE TO GET IT DONE THAT I WAS NOTIFIED THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WAS NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THE FBI IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND AND NOT BECAUSE THEY WERE CALLED OR BECAUSE THEY REACHED OUT, BUT I BELIEVE RECEIVED A WASHINGTON POST THAT THEY RANDOMLY AND A CONFERENCE.

THIS IS THE DYNAMIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE RELATIONSHIP, WHICH IS DEEPLY FRUSTRATING, BUT THE THING I TELL THEM IS WHEN I WAS FIRST INAUGURATED, 43rd IN THE COUNTRY UNEMPLOYMENT.

NOW, 16 STRAIGHT MONTHS OF THE MOST AND IMPLEMENT RATES IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.

WE WENT FROM BEING ONE OF THE DEADLIEST STATES WHERE YOU SAW THE HOMICIDE RATE IN MARYLAND NEARLY DOUBLE OVER AN EIGHT- YEAR PERIOD BEFORE I BECAME THE GOVERNOR AND NOW THE FASTEST NOT IN THE COUNTRY, BUT IN HISTORY.

THE PEOPLE OF OUR STATE KNOW THAT WHEN CRISIS COMES, WE KNOW HOW TO LEAD.

>> WELL, IT HAS TO BE SAID THAT YOU ARE CALLING THESE INVESTMENTS AND YOUR CRITICS CALL THIS A MASSIVE TAX AND SPEND AND THAT MARYLAND -- AND ABOUT 20 LEGISLATORS TO DESCRIBE THE BUDGET AS A MASSIVE TAX AND SPEND BUDGET AND SAYS THAT ANY ATTEMPT TO COUNT IT AS A TAX BUDGET IS JUST INACCURATE.

HOW DO YOU RESPOND TO THAT?

>> 94% EITHER GOT A TAX CUT ON CHANGES IN THE TAX CUT AT ALL.

THE MAJORITY OF MIDDLE-CLASS MARYLANDERS ACTUALLY GOT A TAX CUT AND THE NUMBERS ARE A REPUTABLE.

THE PEOPLE WE DID ASK TO INVEST MORE THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF ANYBODY WHO SAW A TAX INCREASE WERE MILLIONAIRES.

WE WORKED WITH EVERYBODY.

I DO NOT HAVE A PROBLEM ASKING MILLIONAIRES TO PAY A LITTLE BIT MORE, SO WE CAN INVEST IN THE BEST PUBLIC SCHOOLS IN THE COUNTRY AND PAY A LITTLE BIT MORE TO INVEST, SO WE ARE NOT LAYING OFF POLICE OF OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND CONTINUING TO LEAD ONE OF THE FASTEST AND VIOLENT CRIME ANYWHERE IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

I PRIORITIZE THE MIDDLE CLASS.

IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED ON THE FEDERAL SIDE WITH THE REPUBLICAN BUDGET, THAT BUDGET PRIORITIZED MILLIONAIRES AND IT IS THE LARGEST CONSOLIDATION OF WEALTH IN WORLD HISTORY.

THAT IS WHAT THEY JUST PASSED.

GIVING MILLIONAIRES A TAX CUT, SO THEY COULD CUT BENEFITS FOR WORKING FAMILIES.

FOR MARYLAND, I DECIDED THAT WE ARE GOING TO MOVE DIFFERENTLY AND ACTUALLY MAKE SURE WE ARE GIVING THE MIDDLE-CLASS A BREAK AND GIVE WORKING FAMILIES A BREAK.

YES, WE ARE GOING TO ASK PEOPLE WHO HAVE DONE VERY WELL TO BE ABLE TO INVEST A LITTLE BIT MORE, SO WE CAN HAVE THE TYPE OF SOCIETY THAT EACH OF US CAN BELIEVE IN AND EACH CAN BENEFIT FROM.

>> FORGIVE ME.

IS THE CALCULATION HERE THAT WHATEVER THE TAX INCREASE IS IN MARYLAND WILL BE OFFSET THE TAX CUT ON THE FEDERAL SIDE, SO THAT THE HIGHER EARNERS ARE BASICALLY GOING TO BE ALL WASHED?

IS THAT PART OF THE CALCULATION?

>> THE MOST RECENT BUDGET IN MARYLAND, THERE IS ABOUT $2.5 BILLION WORTH OF CUTS IN MARYLAND'S BUDGET.

I AM THE FIRST GOVERNOR NOW IN OVER A DECADE TO HAVE THREE STRAIGHT YEARS OF DECREASING THE SIZE OF THE GENERAL FUND AND DECREASE SIZE OF STATE GOVERNMENTS.

THIS IS THE LARGEST CUT TO THE STATE BUDGET THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN 16 YEARS, SO WE HAVE SHOWN A REAL MEASURE OF DISCIPLINE AND MODERNIZATION AND FRUGAL AS TO WHEN IT COMES TO SPENDING.

AT THE SAME TIME, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT AND THE PEOPLE IN MARYLAND WHO ARE BEING ASKED TO INVEST A LITTLE BIT MORE ARE ALSO THE ONES WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION JUST SAID, HERE IS MY MONEY AND HERE'S HER TAX CUT.

>> THERE IS WITH THE NUMBERS SHOW AND WHAT PEOPLE FEEL.

IS YOUR ARGUMENT THAT THESE INVESTMENTS AS YOU CONSIDER THEM SPENDING, AS REPUBLICANS WOULD SAY WILL IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF LIFE IN MARYLAND TO WHERE PEOPLE WILL FEEL IT.

IS THAT YOUR ARGUMENT?

>> I THINK OUR BEHALF.

YOU ARE NOW SEEN FOR EXAMPLE IN PUBLIC EDUCATION WHERE OUR THIRD GRADE READING SCORES HAVE JUMPED 20 STATES SINCE I HAVE BEEN THE GOVERNOR AND THAT WE NOW HAVE SEEN HOW PUBLIC SAFETY AND VIOLENT CRIME HAS HAD AMONGST THE FASTEST DROPS IN OUR STATE'S HISTORY THAT WE ARE SEEING POPULATION INCREASES INTO A SINGLE LARGE POPULATION INCREASES THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT HISTORY.

I THINK WE ARE SHOWING THAT YOU CAN BE AN EFFICIENT GOVERNMENT AND YOU CAN FOCUS ON MODERNIZATION WHERE ONE OF THE FIRST TIRES I MADE WAS GOVERNOR AND WAS ACTUALLY HIRED AS BOTH A CHIEF INNOVATION OFFICER AND FOCUSING ON MODERNIZATION AND FOCUSING ON STREAMLINING OR CUTTING COST IN A HUMANE WAY, SO PEOPLE IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND ARE SAYING THAT OUR INVESTMENTS ARE ACTUALLY WORKING AND OUR STRATEGY IS ACTUALLY WORKING.

AT A TIME WHEN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS FORCING TO INCREASE PRICES ON EVERYTHING, WORKING FAMILIES, WE BELIEVE THAT WORKING FAMILIES AND TAX CUT.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT THE HOMICIDE DROP.

68 HOMICIDES THROUGH JUNE AND THE LOWEST IN THE 50 YEARS IS LIKE A 20% DROP AND YOU ARE NOT THE MAYOR OF BALTIMORE, BUT WHAT DO YOU ATTRIBUTE THAT.

WHAT IS THE STATE'S ROLE IN THIS?

>> I THINK THE STATE PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT CAME TO COORDINATING WITH LOCAL LEADERS AND THE MAYOR, STATE ATTORNEYS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

WE MADE THE LARGEST INVESTMENTS IN LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN OUR STATE'S HISTORY THAT WE INVESTED IN PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS TO BE ABLE TO STOP CRIME BEFORE IT HAPPENS AND IF THEY CAN TAKE CRIME, I WANT THEM IN HANDCUFFS IN 24 HOURS.

WE CAN INVEST IN COMMUNICATION GROUPS.

THE MOST VIOLENT YOUR RECORDED IN BALTIMORE'S HISTORY WAS 2022.

THE YEAR BEFORE I BECAME THE GOVERNOR.

NOW, THE LEAST VIOLENT YEAR IN RECENT HISTORIES GIVES 2025 TWO YEARS TO OUR GOVERNORSHIP AND WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FUNDAMENTALLY BREAK THE BACK.

>> THAT IS LIKE A CORRELATION AND NOT CAUSATION.

WHAT IS THE COST?

>> ADVOCATES THAT WE ARE WORKING TOGETHER AND PUT MORE BOOTS ON THE GROUND AND HAVE INVESTED IN LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ABLE TO INVEST IN TECHNOLOGY AND WE ARE ONE OF THE FEW STATES THAT PUTS CAPITAL IN THE U.S. ATTORNEY FROM THE BALANCE SHEET THAT WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FOCUS ON GENERAL JUSTICE AND BE ABLE TO HAVE REAL FOCUS ON SUPPORTING AND ELEVATING OUR YOUTH AND FOCUSING ISSUES OF POVERTY.

I THINK WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TAKE ALL OF THE ABOVE APPROACH TO INCLUDE THE FACT THAT WE ARE PUTTING ADDITIONAL $2 MILLION INTO THE BALTIMORE POLICE DEPARTMENT.

THOSE TYPES OF THINGS TO MAKE A MARKETING IMPACT AND ABLE TO SEE WHERE WE HAVE GONE FROM IN 2022, THE MOST VIOLENT YEAR IN BALTIMORE'S HISTORY TO ESSENTIALLY NOW HAVING THE LAST IN A HOMICIDE WAS THE SLOW IN BALTIMORE CITY I WASN'T BORN YET AND NOT JUST IN BALTIMORE CITY, BUT YOU NURSING ALL ACROSS THE STATE OF MARYLAND, SO WE ALSO KNOW THAT WE ARE NOT DONE YET.

>> WHAT DO YOU SEE AS A ROLE RIGHT NOW AND PARTICULARLY AT A TIME WHEN DEMOCRATS ON THE WHOLE NATIONALLY ARE NOT THAT HAPPY WITH THEIR LEADERSHIP?

THEY DON'T FEEL THEY HAVE TAKEN AN AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN ADDRESSING THINGS WHERE THE STRONGEST SUPREME AND MANY DON'T THINK THEY HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN OPPOSING THINGS WITH WHICH DEMOCRATS PROFOUNDLY DISAGREE.

DO YOU SEE YOURSELF AS HAVING A PARTICULAR ROLE?

WHAT DO YOU THINK IT IS?

>> I THINK IT'S TO DO WHAT WE ARE DOING, WHICH IS DELIVER HIS RESULTS FOR MARYLAND.

THEY DID NOT ELECT ME TO REVIVE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

THEY DID NOT ELECT ME TO BE ABLE TO TALK ABOUT THE THINGS THAT SHOULD BE HAPPENING.

THEY ELECTED ME, BECAUSE WE COULD DO THINGS LIKE HAVING RECORD DROPS AND WE HAVE RECORD DROPS AND UNEMPLOYMENT.

THEY ELECTED ME BECAUSE WE CAN FOCUS ON MAKING MARYLAND THE FIRST STATE IN THE COUNTRY THAT HAS A SERVICER OPTION ALL GRADUATES AND AS YOU MENTIONED EARLIER.

WE CAN ACCOMPLISH THE CLEARING OF THE FEDERAL CHANNEL IN RECORD SPEED AND I THINK THE PEOPLE ARE SEEING THAT IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND AND WITHIN MY ADMINISTRATION WE DO YES AND NOW AND WE MAKE SURE WE ARE PROVIDING REAL OPPORTUNITIES TO PROVIDE PATHWAYS TO WORK WAVES AND WEALTH FOR THE PEOPLE OF OUR STATE, SO THE FACT THAT PEOPLE ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO THE RESULTS THAT WE ARE DRIVING IS VERY HUMBLING.

I DEEPLY APPRECIATE IT.

I ALSO KNOW THAT THE WAY YOU WIN ELECTIONS IS BY ACTUALLY DOING WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO DO AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE DONE.

>> WOULD YOU LIKE FOR PRESIDENT 2028 AS A DEMOCRAT?

THOUGHTS?

>> RIGHT NOW, FOR ANYONE WHO IS PAYING ATTENTION IN 2028, IT MEANS THAT YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION IN 2025.

WE HAVE REAL ISSUES AND ESSENTIALLY A FULL THAT IS TAKING PLACE FROM OUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ON THE PEOPLE OF OUR STATE AND ON OUR FEDERAL WORKERS AND FAMILIES AND ON OUR STUDENTS.

I THINK THAT ANYONE WHO IS PAYING ATTENTION TO WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN 2028, THEY'RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO WHAT'S HAPPENING IN 2025.

>> IS THIS JOB WHAT YOU THOUGHT IT WOULD BE?

>> I LOVE THIS JOB.

IT IS HAVING A CHANCE EVERY SINGLE DAY TO MAKE POLICIES THAT YOU HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT AND DREAMED ABOUT AND HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THEM IN ACTION.

IT IS REALLY EXCITING AND WE SPEND ALL OF OUR TIME OUT IN NEIGHBORHOODS ALL OVER THE STATE AND WESTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN SHORE AND EVERYWHERE TO SEE THE PEOPLE OF OUR STATE KNOWING THAT THEY HAD A FIGHTER AND EXCITED THEY HAVE A FIGHTER AS THEIR GOVERNOR.

>> GOVERNOR WHITMER, THANK YOU FOR TALKING WITH US.

>>> FINALLY, ONE SMALL STEP FOR MAN AND ONE GIANT LEAP FOR MANKIND.

>> LIFT OFF.

WE HAVE A LIFT OFF.

32 MINUTES PAST THE HOUR.

>> THAT WAS BLASTING OFF 56 YEARS AGO TODAY.

IT WAS THE FIRST EVER MOON LANDING IN HISTORY.

NEIL ARMSTRONG'S MOMENTOUS FIRST STEPS ON THE MOON OF COURSE MADE HISTORY AND HE WAS JOINED BY PILATE SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.

HE STAYED ON BOARD MANNING THE COMMAND MODULE THAT WOULD BRING THEM ALL BACK, BUT THAT DIDN'T DENT HIS OWN EXPERIENCE.

HERE IS WHAT HE TOLD ME IN 2019 TWO YEARS BEFORE HE DIED.

>> THE QUESTION HE USUALLY ASKED ME IS, WERE YOU NOT LONELY AND I WAS JUST AMAZED BY THAT.

I WAS IN NO WAY LONELY AND I FELT VERY MUCH PART OF WHAT WAS GOING ON.

I WAS THEIR TICKET HOME.

>> INDEED HE WAS AND IN SPACE ALSO FOUND HIMSELF MESMERIZED BY THE VIEW OF THE MARBLE WE ALL LIVE ON.

>> AT THE TIME, I WAS REALLY NOT ABLE TO EXPLAIN THAT TO MYSELF AND I KNOW WHERE THE THIRD ROCK OUT, BUT I FELT AN OVERRIDING QUALITY OF FRAGILITY ABOUT THE EARTH AS I LOOKED AT IT.

I CAN REMEMBER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINES, I'VE GOT THE WORLD IN MY WINDOW AND VERY CONSCIOUS OF THAT.

I THINK THAT'S A FEELING.

>> MUST HAVE BEEN A BEAUTIFUL FEELING INDEED.

THAT IS IT FOR A PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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